Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 21,127
2 New Jersey 20,128
3 Arizona 19,417
4 Louisiana 19,080
5 Rhode Island 16,795
6 Massachusetts 16,429
7 District of Columbia 15,861
8 Florida 15,716
9 Mississippi 14,060
10 Delaware 13,790
11 Connecticut 13,433
12 Alabama 13,304
13 South Carolina 13,131
14 Maryland 12,864
15 Illinois 12,788
16 Iowa 12,143
17 Georgia 12,087
18 Nebraska 11,654
19 Texas 11,382
20 Nevada 11,235
21 Tennessee 10,911
22 Arkansas 10,780
23 Utah 10,427
24 California 9,698
25 North Carolina 9,361
26 Virginia 8,947
27 South Dakota 8,887
28 Indiana 8,473
29 Pennsylvania 8,184
30 Michigan 8,149
31 Idaho 8,076
32 Minnesota 8,069
33 New Mexico 7,981
34 Wisconsin 7,748
35 Kansas 7,633
36 Colorado 6,913
37 North Dakota 6,444
38 Oklahoma 6,332
39 Ohio 6,315
40 Washington 6,288
41 Missouri 5,598
42 Kentucky 5,092
43 New Hampshire 4,550
44 Wyoming 3,642
45 Puerto Rico 3,586
46 Oregon 3,374
47 Alaska 2,948
48 West Virginia 2,746
49 Maine 2,712
50 Montana 2,311
51 Vermont 2,144
52 Hawaii 940

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Florida 554
2 Arizona 454
3 Nevada 434
4 Alabama 419
5 Texas 386
6 Mississippi 367
7 South Carolina 347
8 Idaho 342
9 Tennessee 341
10 Georgia 320
11 Louisiana 319
12 Arkansas 246
13 California 233
14 Utah 228
15 North Carolina 206
16 Oklahoma 188
17 Iowa 187
18 Wisconsin 155
19 North Dakota 149
20 Missouri 142
21 New Mexico 142
22 Delaware 129
23 Ohio 128
24 Washington 126
25 Kansas 123
26 Maryland 121
27 Kentucky 119
28 Indiana 116
29 Puerto Rico 112
30 Virginia 111
31 Minnesota 102
32 Montana 100
33 Nebraska 97
34 Illinois 94
35 Alaska 90
36 Colorado 90
37 Oregon 90
38 District of Columbia 79
39 South Dakota 79
40 Michigan 76
41 Wyoming 70
42 West Virginia 67
43 Pennsylvania 62
44 Rhode Island 48
45 Massachusetts 43
46 New York 39
47 Connecticut 24
48 New Jersey 20
49 New Hampshire 18
50 Maine 16
51 Hawaii 14
52 Vermont 10

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,767
2 New York 1,653
3 Connecticut 1,233
4 Massachusetts 1,221
5 Rhode Island 934
6 District of Columbia 818
7 Louisiana 754
8 Michigan 637
9 Illinois 590
10 Maryland 557
11 Pennsylvania 552
12 Delaware 537
13 Mississippi 452
14 Indiana 418
15 Arizona 375
16 Colorado 304
17 Georgia 292
18 New Hampshire 291
19 Minnesota 279
20 New Mexico 271
21 Ohio 267
22 Alabama 262
23 Iowa 250
24 Virginia 237
25 Florida 227
26 South Carolina 220
27 Nevada 210
28 Washington 198
29 California 194
30 Missouri 188
31 Nebraska 159
32 North Carolina 157
33 Kentucky 153
34 Wisconsin 146
35 Texas 136
36 South Dakota 131
37 North Dakota 123
38 Tennessee 121
39 Arkansas 118
40 Oklahoma 113
41 Kansas 107
42 Vermont 89
43 Maine 87
44 Utah 75
45 Idaho 67
46 Oregon 61
47 Puerto Rico 55
48 West Virginia 55
49 Wyoming 41
50 Montana 34
51 Alaska 21
52 Hawaii 16

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Arizona 13
2 South Carolina 8
3 Mississippi 6
4 Alabama 5
5 Florida 5
6 Texas 4
7 District of Columbia 3
8 Louisiana 3
9 Nevada 3
10 Arkansas 2
11 California 2
12 Georgia 2
13 Massachusetts 2
14 New Jersey 2
15 Tennessee 2
16 Connecticut 1
17 Idaho 1
18 Illinois 1
19 Indiana 1
20 Iowa 1
21 Kentucky 1
22 Maryland 1
23 Michigan 1
24 Minnesota 1
25 Nebraska 1
26 New Mexico 1
27 North Carolina 1
28 Ohio 1
29 Oklahoma 1
30 Pennsylvania 1
31 South Dakota 1
32 Utah 1
33 Virginia 1
34 Washington 1
35 Wyoming 1
36 Alaska 0
37 Colorado 0
38 Delaware 0
39 Hawaii 0
40 Kansas 0
41 Maine 0
42 Missouri 0
43 Montana 0
44 New Hampshire 0
45 New York 0
46 North Dakota 0
47 Oregon 0
48 Puerto Rico 0
49 Rhode Island 0
50 Vermont 0
51 West Virginia 0
52 Wisconsin 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 136,742 1 99
Lake Tennessee 99,629 2 99
Lee Arkansas 96,985 3 99
Dakota Nebraska 93,329 4 99
Buena Vista Iowa 89,246 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 24,450 122 96
Richland South Carolina 14,263 399 87
Orange California 9,135 796 74
York South Carolina 7,944 934 70
Pierce Washington 4,526 1539 51

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 3,902 1 99
Randolph Georgia 3,688 2 99
Terrell Georgia 3,399 3 99
Early Georgia 3,042 4 99
Emporia city Virginia 2,806 5 99
Richland South Carolina 255 666 78
Davidson Tennessee 239 698 77
Orange California 156 952 69
Pierce Washington 128 1074 65
York South Carolina 50 1678 46

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons